Extinction risks and mitigation for a megaherbivore, the giraffe, in a human-influenced landscape under climate change.

Megaherbivores play "outsized" roles in ecosystem functioning but are vulnerable to human impacts such as overhunting, land-use changes, and climate extremes. However, such impacts-and combinations of these impacts-on population dynamics are rarely examined using empirical data. To guide effective conservation actions under increasing global-change pressures, we developed a socially structured individual-based model (IBM) using long-term demographic data from female giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) in a human-influenced landscape in northern Tanzania, the Tarangire Ecosystem. This unfenced system includes savanna habitats with a wide gradient of anthropogenic pressures, from national parks, a wildlife ranch and community conservation areas, to unprotected village lands. We then simulated and projected over 50 years how realistic environmental and land-use management changes might affect this metapopulation of female giraffes. Scenarios included: (1) anthropogenic land-use changes including roads and agricultural/urban expansion; (2) reduction or improvement in wildlife law enforcement measures; (3) changes in populations of natural predators and migratory alternative prey; and (4) increases in rainfall as predicted for East Africa. The factor causing the greatest risk of rapid declines in female giraffe abundance in our simulations was a reduction in law enforcement leading to more poaching. Other threats decreased abundances of giraffes, but improving law enforcement in both of the study area's protected areas mitigated these impacts: a 0.01 increase in giraffe survival probability from improved law enforcement mitigated a 25% rise in heavy rainfall events by increasing abundance 19%, and mitigated the expansion of towns and blockage of dispersal movements by increasing abundance 22%. Our IBM enabled us to further quantify fine-scale abundance changes among female giraffe social communities, revealing potential source-sink interactions within the metapopulation. This flexible methodology can be adapted to test additional ecological questions in this landscape, or to model populations of giraffes or other species in different ecosystems.

Genetic evidence of population subdivision among Masai giraffes separated by the Gregory Rift Valley in Tanzania.

The Masai giraffe has experienced a population decline from 70,000 to 35,000 in the past three decades and was declared an endangered subspecies by the IUCN in 2019. The remaining number of Masai giraffe are geographically separated by the steep cliffs of the Gregory Rift escarpments (GRE) in Tanzania and Kenya dividing them into two populations, one west and one east of the GRE. The cliffs of the GRE are formidable barriers to east-west dispersal and gene flow and the few remaining natural corridors through the GRE are occupied by human settlements. To assess the impact of the GRE on Masai giraffe gene flow, we examined whole genome sequences of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in populations located east (Tarangire ecosystem) and west (Serengeti ecosystem) of the GRE in northern Tanzania. Evidence from mtDNA variation, which measures female-mediated gene flow, suggests that females have not migrated across the GRE between populations in the Serengeti and Tarangire ecosystems in the past ~289,000 years. The analysis of nuclear DNA variation compared to mtDNA DNA variation suggests that male-mediated gene flow across the GRE has occurred more recently but stopped a few thousand years ago. Our findings show that Masai giraffes are split into two populations and fulfill the criteria for designation as distinct evolutionary significant units (ESUs), which we denote as western Masai giraffe and eastern Masai giraffe. While establishing giraffe dispersal corridors across the GRE is impractical, conservation efforts should be focused on maintaining connectivity among populations within each of these two populations. The importance of these efforts is heightened by our finding that the inbreeding coefficients are high in some of these Masai giraffe populations, which could result in inbreeding depression in the small and fragmented populations.

Relative Contribution of Genetic and Environmental Factors in CKD.

Chronic kidney disease affects nearly 15 percent of the U.S. population. Onset and rate of progression are influenced by a combination of genetic and non-genetic factors. Because health care systems across the U.S. are beginning to deploy automated decision support to stratify patients at risk, we review the relative impact of genetic factors (e.g., APOL1 gene polymorphisms) and non-genetic factors (e.g., clinical comorbidities and exposure to environmental nephrotoxins) contributing to this common disease. Overall, the impact of non-genetic factors appears to exceed the impact of genetic factors.

Proximity to humans affects local social structure in a giraffe metapopulation.

Experimental laboratory evidence suggests that animals with disrupted social systems express weakened relationship strengths and have more exclusive social associations, and that these changes have functional consequences. A key question is whether anthropogenic pressures have a similar impact on the social structure of wild animal communities. We addressed this question by constructing a social network from 6 years of systematically collected photographic capture-recapture data spanning 1,139 individual adult female Masai giraffes inhabiting a large, unfenced, heterogeneous landscape in northern Tanzania. We then used the social network to identify distinct social communities, and tested whether social or anthropogenic and other environmental factors predicted differences in social structure among these communities. We reveal that giraffes have a multilevel social structure. Local preferences in associations among individuals scale up to a number of distinct, but spatially overlapping, social communities, that can be viewed as a large interconnected metapopulation. We then find that communities that are closer to traditional compounds of Indigenous Masai people express weaker relationship strengths and the giraffes in these communities are more exclusive in their associations. The patterns we characterize in response to proximity to humans reflect the predictions of disrupted social systems. Near bomas, fuelwood cutting can reduce food resources, and groups of giraffes are more likely to encounter livestock and humans on foot, thus disrupting the social associations among group members. Our results suggest that human presence could potentially be playing an important role in determining the conservation future of this megaherbivore.

Fission-fusion dynamics of a megaherbivore are driven by ecological, anthropogenic, temporal, and social factors.

Fission-fusion dynamics hypothetically enable animals to exploit dispersed and ephemeral food resources while minimizing predation risk. Disentangling factors affecting group size and composition of fission-fusion species facilitates their management and conservation. We used a 6-year data set of 2888 group formations of Masai giraffes in Tanzania to investigate determinants of social group size and structure. We tested whether ecological (lion density, vegetation structure, and prevalence of primary forage plants), anthropogenic (proximity to human settlements), temporal (rainy or dry season), and social (local giraffe density, adult sex ratio, and proportion of calves) factors explained variation in group size and sex- and age-class composition. Food availability rather than predation risk mediated grouping dynamics of adult giraffes, while predation risk was the most important factor influencing congregations with calves. Smallest group sizes occurred during the food-limiting dry season. Where predation risk was greatest, groups with calves were in bushlands more than in open grasslands, but the groups were smaller in size, suggesting mothers adopted a strategy of hiding calves rather than a predator-detection-and-dilution strategy. Groups with calves also were farther from towns but closer to traditional human compounds (bomas). This may be due to lower predator densities, and thus reduced calf predation risk, near bomas but higher human disturbance near towns. Sex- and age-based differences in habitat use reflected nursing mothers' need for high-quality forage while also protecting their young from predation. Our results have implications for conservation and management of giraffes and other large-bodied, herd-forming ungulates in heterogeneous environments subject to anthropogenic threats.

Seeing spots: quantifying mother-offspring similarity and assessing fitness consequences of coat pattern traits in a wild population of giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis).

Polymorphic phenotypes of mammalian coat coloration have been important to the study of genetics and evolution, but less is known about the inheritance and fitness consequences of individual variation in complex coat pattern traits such as spots and stripes. Giraffe coat markings are highly complex and variable and it has been hypothesized that variation in coat patterns most likely affects fitness by camouflaging neonates against visually hunting predators. We quantified complex coat pattern traits of wild Masai giraffes using image analysis software, determined the similarity of spot pattern traits between mother and offspring, and assessed whether variation in spot pattern traits was related to fitness as measured by juvenile survival. The methods we described could comprise a framework for objective quantification of complex mammal coat pattern traits based on photographic coat pattern data. We demonstrated that some characteristics of giraffe coat spot shape were likely to be heritable, as measured by mother-offspring regression. We found significant variation in juvenile survival among phenotypic groups of neonates defined by multivariate clustering based on spot trait measurement variables. We also found significant variation in neonatal survival associated with spot size and shape covariates. Larger spots (smaller number of spots) and irregularly shaped or rounder spots (smaller aspect ratio) were correlated with increased survival. These findings will inform investigations into developmental and genetic architecture of complex mammal coat patterns and their adaptive value.

Quantifying the ecological success of a community-based wildlife conservation area in Tanzania.

In Tanzania, community-based natural resource management of wildlife occurs through the creation of Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs). WMAs consist of multiple villages designating land for wildlife conservation, and sharing a portion of subsequent tourism revenues. Nineteen WMAs are currently operating, encompassing 7% of Tanzania's land area, with 19 more WMAs planned. The ecological success or failure of WMAs for wildlife conservation has yet to be quantified. We defined ecological success in this case as significantly greater densities of wildlife and significantly lower densities of livestock in the WMA relative to the control site, after the WMA was established. We used 4 years of distance sampling surveys conducted 6 times per year for wild and domestic ungulates to quantify wildlife and livestock densities before and after the establishment and implementation of management efforts at Randilen WMA, relative to a control site on adjacent land of similar vegetation and habitat types. We documented similarity between the sites before WMA establishment, when both sites were managed by the same authority. After WMA establishment, we documented significantly higher densities of resident wildlife (giraffes and dik-diks) and lower densities of cattle in the WMA, relative to the control site, indicating short-term ecological success. Continued monitoring is necessary to determine longer-term effects, and to evaluate management decisions.

How many species of giraffe are there?

In a recent paper in Current Biology, Fennessy and colleagues [1] conclude that there are four species of giraffe and that their numbers are declining in Africa. Giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) are presently classified as one species, with nine subspecies, which are considered 'Vulnerable' on the IUCN Red List [2]. The present consensus of one species divided into nine subspecies has previously been questioned (Supplemental information), and Fennessy and colleagues [1] provide another viewpoint on giraffe taxonomy. The fundamental reason for different taxonomic interpretations is that they are based upon different datasets that adopt different statistical techniques and follow different criteria for nomenclature.

Migratory herds of wildebeests and zebras indirectly affect calf survival of giraffes.

In long-distance migratory systems, local fluctuations in the predator-prey ratio can exhibit extreme variability within a single year depending upon the seasonal location of migratory species. Such systems offer an opportunity to empirically investigate cyclic population density effects on short-term food web interactions by taking advantage of the large seasonal shifts in migratory prey biomass.We utilized a large-mammal predator-prey savanna food web to evaluate support for hypotheses relating to the indirect effects of "apparent competition" and "apparent mutualism" from migratory ungulate herds on survival of resident megaherbivore calves, mediated by their shared predator. African lions (Panthera leo) are generalist predators whose primary, preferred prey are wildebeests (Connochaetes taurinus) and zebras (Equus quagga), while lion predation on secondary prey such as giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) may change according to the relative abundance of the primary prey species.We used demographic data from five subpopulations of giraffes in the Tarangire Ecosystem of Tanzania, East Africa, to test hypotheses relating to direct predation and indirect effects of large migratory herds on calf survival of a resident megaherbivore. We examined neonatal survival via apparent reproduction of 860 adult females, and calf survival of 449 giraffe calves, during three precipitation seasons over 3 years, seeking evidence of some effect on neonate and calf survival as a consequence of the movements of large herds of migratory ungulates.We found that local lion predation pressure (lion density divided by primary prey density) was significantly negatively correlated with giraffe neonatal and calf survival probabilities. This supports the apparent mutualism hypothesis that the presence of migratory ungulates reduces lion predation on giraffe calves.Natural predation had a significant effect on giraffe calf and neonate survival, and could significantly affect giraffe population dynamics. If wildebeest and zebra populations in this ecosystem continue to decline as a result of increasingly disrupted migrations and poaching, then giraffe calves will face increased predation pressure as the predator-prey ratio increases. Our results suggest that the widespread population declines observed in many migratory systems are likely to trigger demographic impacts in other species due to indirect effects like those shown here.

Soil Correlates and Mortality from Giraffe Skin Disease in Tanzania.

Giraffe skin disease (GSD) is a disorder of undetermined etiology that causes lesions on the forelimbs of Masai giraffe ( Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) in Tanzania, East Africa. We examined soil correlates of prevalence of GSD from 951 giraffe in 14 sites in Tanzania, and estimated mortality using 3 yr of longitudinal mark-recapture data from 382 giraffe with and without GSD lesions, in Tarangire National Park (TNP). Spatial variation in GSD prevalence was best explained by soil fertility, measured as cation exchange capacity. We found no mortality effect of GSD on adult giraffe in TNP. Based on our findings, GSD is unlikely to warrant immediate veterinary intervention, but continued monitoring is recommended to ensure early detection if GSD-afflicted animals begin to show signs of increased mortality or other adverse effects.

The Occurrence and Prevalence of Giraffe Skin Disease in Protected Areas of Northern Tanzania.

Giraffe skin disease (GSD) is a disorder of undetermined etiology that causes lesions on the forelimbs of Masai giraffe ( Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi). We estimated occurrence and prevalence of GSD in six wildlife conservation areas of Tanzania. The disjunct spatial pattern of occurrence implies that environmental factors may influence GSD.

Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California: implications for population change.

1. We performed demographic analyses on Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, a zooplanktivorous seabird inhabiting the variable California Current System, to understand how temporal environmental variability influences population dynamics. 2. We used capture-recapture data from 1986 to 2002 to rank models of interannual variation in survival, breeding propensity, breeding success, and recruitment. 3. All demographic parameters exhibited temporal variability. Interannual variation in survival was best modelled as a nonlinear function of the winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Breeding propensity was best modelled as a threshold function of local sea surface temperature. Breeding success and recruitment were best modelled with year-dependent annual variation. 4. Changes in the SOI force El Niño/La Niña events, which in turn alter prey availability to seabirds in this system. Demographic responses varied during El Niños/La Niñas. Survival diminished substantially during the 1997-98 El Niño event, while breeding propensity was affected during both the 1992 and 1998 El Niños. Breeding success was reduced during the 1992, 1993, and 1998 El Niños, but was unusually high in 2002. Recruitment was higher at the beginning and end of this time-series. 5. While demographic responses varied interannually, parameter values covaried in a positive fashion, a situation conducive to rapid population change. During the 11 years study period, the Farallon auklet breeding population declined at 6.05 +/- 0.80% (SE) per year, a cumulative decline of 49.7%. This study demonstrates how climate variability has influenced key demographic processes for this diminished marine bird population.